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G-20 London Summit: Emerging Economies Focal Point
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The G-20 London summit on April 2, 2009, part of the annual forum of the 20 largest economies that convenes to review the global trade and economic scenario, marked the recognition of the central role that the emerging economies will play in the revival of the global economy.
The financial crisis that gripped the global economy since last year is expected to result in a drop of 9% in global trade in 2009, according to the World Trade Organisation estimates. The developed countries’ exports are set to fall by as much as 10%, while developing countries will see a marginal contraction of 2%-3% in their shipments.
The G-20 shunned protectionism across the board to promote global trade and investment. The forum extended a $1.1 trillion for international credit and additional $250 billion through the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as part of the few decisive steps to revive the global economy. This capital infusion will benefit the emerging economies like India and China, particularly in the services exports. The two countries figure among the top 10 in services exports, with China contributing 3.7% at $137 billion closely followed by India contributing 2.8% at $106 billion of the world’s total in 2008.
G-20 itself is a manifestation of emerging economies with more weightage in the global economic affairs, as compared to the G-8, a group of eight largest industrialized nations. Some assertions, however, such as the regulations to curb tax havens, could negatively impact capital flows into emerging economies.
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FDI: Destination India
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India continues to enjoy a high level of confidence among overseas investors who have invested about $24 billion during the first 10 months of the financial year 2008-09, up 66% compared to the corresponding period last year. In contrast, worldwide, foreign direct investment (FDI) fell 21% last year to $1.4 trillion, estimates the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTD).
In the month of January 2009 alone, FDI inflows worth $2.74 billion represented a rise of about 55% year-on-year. China, by contrast, saw a 33% drop in FDI compared to the same month last year as its’s manufacturing-based economy was more negatively affected by tightening global credit, recession and falling corporate profits.
India is expected to close the financial year ended March 31, 2009 with $28 billion of FDI against inflows of $24.5 billion in the previous year. If reinvested earnings of foreign companies are taken in to account, that figure is expected to increase to about $38 billion, up from $34.3 billion in the previous fiscal year.
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Indian Pharma: Prescription for Growth
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The Indian Pharmaceutical sector is positioning itself to be among the top five centres of global innovation as the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP), Government of India outlines its roadmap for the sector up to the year 2020 (Vision 2020). It foresees investments of about $2 billion annually, under the public-private partnership model.
The initiative will open avenues of growth for global pharmaceuticals companies and fuel the next wave of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in a market where consumer spending on healthcare increased to 7% in 2007 from 4% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 1995 and is expected to rise to 13% of GDP by 2015. India also offers the benefits of low cost research and development (R&D), a domain in which it is estimated to capture about 10%-20% share of the world’s R&D business by 2020 from less than 1% currently.
Expansion by global pharmaceutical companies in to emerging markets like India becomes imperative as about $103 billion worth of patented drugs will go off patent in the next few years. This will further hit the already sagging fortunes of global pharma companies which are trying to augment their revenues by acquiring or aligning with companies in the generics business. The acquisition of India’s largest drug-maker Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd by Daiichi Sankyo Company Limited, one of the largest pharmaceuticals companies in Japan last year, is an apt example in this context. (See our Special Report
for an overview of the sector.)
Bundeep Singh Rangar
Chairman, IndusView
Bundeep.Rangar@IndusView.com
www.indusview.com
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